Sunday, November 18, 2007

Last Snow Chance

Monday morning update

Well, we got our foot of snow... and then some. This storm has been FANTASTIC, dropping more snow than expected. As I write this (5:30am), there is about 18" of snow on the ground at Timberline and Mt. Hood Meadows. Ski Bowl has 14" at the top. There will probably be another 4-8" today.

So... by the time it stops snowing tonight, base totals should be nearly 2 feet at Timberline & Meadows -- but it's an unpacked snow base. Compacted, it'll settle to 14-18", which is VERY marginal for skiing and snowboarding. There's no chance that Ski Bowl will have enough snow to open, but it'll be interesting to see what Timberline and Meadows decide to do.

Original Sunday post

As expected, the snow level has finally dropped... and as I write this (Sunday afternoon, 2:30pm), it's snowing hard on Mount Hood down to about the 3,500-foot elevation. The forecast I outlined in my previous post seems to be verifying -- we can expect up to a foot of snow at Timberline and Mount Hood Meadows between now and Monday evening. Ski Bowl should get several inches too, as the snow level will be as low as 1,500-2,000 feet Sunday night into Monday. That's the good news.

The bad news is that the snow totally shuts off after Monday -- with no snow in sight for at least a week. So this batch of snow is the last before Thanksgiving. Is a foot enough? In my opinion, no. Barring either a miracle (and an incredibly blown forecast) or some extremely creative snow management techniques at the ski areas (send crews into the trees with shovels & tell them to throw any available snow onto the ski runs), options for skiing & boarding in Oregon this coming weekend will be extremely limited. The only reasonable option, in my opinion, will be at Timberline -- up high -- on the Palmer Snowfield (which, by the way, should be in GREAT shape with all the new snow).

The long-range pattern looks uncooperative (for snow) through the holiday weekend. High pressure stays centered near the Northwest, keeping the West Coast dry, the Central USA cold and the Eastern States stormy. Beyond next weekend, the models are hinting at continued drier-than-normal weather, with a dominant pattern of north/northwest flow over the Northwest. Chilly, light snow-producing weather disturbances can definitely drop out of the north/northwest & brush by us in the projected pattern -- but the disturbances are usually weak and often have little moisture with them. Unfortunately, I see no sign of a "big snow" pattern in the long-range. Let's hope that the computer models change their tune... because if they don't, the start of the 2007-2008 ski season could be significantly delayed.

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