Opening Outlook & Thanksgiving

This weekend marks the traditional, published date on the calendar for tentative ski area openings. Resorts aim to be open the weekend before Thanksgiving so they have a few days to shake the bugs out before the holiday rush. Of course, mother nature makes the final decision -- and this year, she's decided there will be no skiing or boarding this weekend.

So... what about Thanksgiving skiing and boarding? Honestly, I don't have good news. It's going to be too warm through Saturday for any meaningful snow on the mountain. I'm hopeful that a cooler air mass arriving Sunday-Monday will have enough moisture with it to bring 8-12" of snow down to 3,000 feet. But since the Tuesday-Thursday period looks dry again, that Sunday-Monday system is our last best hope before Thanksgiving. Frankly, 8-12" won't be enough. The ski areas need another 2-3 feet. And I don't think they're going to get it before the holiday.

While not much of a consolation, keep in mind that Thanksgiving this year falls about as early as this holiday ever gets. Thanksgiving skiing & boarding is a crapshoot every year; the odds are tougher when Thanksgiving is early. But if the lifts aren't turning by the last week of November, then I'll consider it a late start to this season.

Most long-range forecasters agree that a snowy winter for the Cascades is more likely than not (because of the strengthening La Nina). But it's not unusual for La Nina winters to be a little sluggish early-on with the arriving snow. A "classic" La Nina season would produce normal or even below-normal snow in November and December. But frequent heavy snowfall during the back-half of La Nina winters usually makes up for the bashful beginnings... and then some. Winter hangs-on and spring often arives late during La Nina seasons. (Oppositely, El Nino tends to produce a good November & December -- but January-March can be disappointing and spring often arrives early during El Nino years. Sound familiar? That's how last year worked out.)

I'm not ready to give up hope for Thanksgiving holiday boarding just yet, but my hopes are fading. We'll see how this Sunday-Monday weather system plays out. At best, there will be very limited operations over the holiday at a one or two of the ski areas. At worst, nothing will be open.