Saturday, December 1, 2007

A Wild Few Days

It's been a crazy day. The people of Portland are throwing rotten tomatoes at their TVs in hopes that miraculously one will break through and actually hit a weather person. Of course, I'm talking about the busted snow forecast. Even the best forecasters don't win them all... and this one was far from a win. Enough on that... time to move on, because there's plenty more to talk about.

Up next: Heavy Cascade snow followed by rain and VERY windy conditions up on the mountain. The snow level will start out near 2,000 feet early Sunday, but by day's end, it'll be above 5,000 feet. But between Saturday night and Sunday evening, I expect 10-20 inches of new snow. It'll be increasingly wet and thick snow too... which, falling on top of lighter and fluffier stuff, will lead to a huge avalanche risk. Southwest winds will steadily increase Sunday as well.

Sunday night into Monday morning, conditions will deteriorate rapidly on the mountain. The snow level will jump to 8,000 feet and heavy rain is likely at the ski areas throughout Monday. Southwest wind could easily blow at 40-60 mph sustained, and gusts over 100 mph are likely above treeline. Given the forecast, I hope that Timberline has spent the past couple days working to put their Palmer Express lift "to bed" for the winter. (This involves lowering the haul rope off the sheaves to a spot half-way up each tower, ensuring that the towers won't snap in the event of extreme rime ice build-up on the rope. That happened twice in the 1990s; each time it required a costly fix. For this reason, Timberline no longer makes any effort to run the lift during the winter season.)

The weather calms down Tuesday, and some cooler air behind the passing front should lower the snow level again. But I don't see a lot of snow coming after the snow level drops. Despite the bad weather conditions Monday, the rain will be good for the snowpack. It will compact it and then the cooler weather arriving Tuesday will stabilize it. It's what we need early in the season.

Enjoy all the new snow Sunday... and drive safe.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the detailed update Drew for what to expect this weekend. That's exactly the info for which I'm looking.

Hopefully Sunday won't be too windy.

Unknown said...

Drew- We were going to go up today but didn't because of the wind. When do you think the next good day will be at meadows?

Anonymous said...

Thank you so much for the great information about what to expect this coming week/weekend. I'll continue to check back for more updates and information here. Thanks!

Drew Jackson said...

John,

I would avoid Monday. Too wet & windy up there...

Tuesday will be a transition day. Honestly, I'm not sure exactly how Tuesday will play out. A cold front will move through at some point Tuesday, but there may be more rain before the freezing level lowers again later in the day. Unfortunately, after the freezing level drops, I'm not very optimistic about any new snow. It may turn pretty icy (off the groomed runs). Tuesday will be marginally better than Monday, but Wednesday should be quite a bit better than Tuesday. Regardless of the weather details, it looks like the best skiing/boarding will be on the groomed runs for much of this week.

-DJ